[Abstract]: The rapid recovery of the property market will lead to the early arrival of the new policy of regulation and control. Therefore, although in the long run, the property market regulation and control policy will still have clear support for reasonable demand for improvement, in order to cope with the rapid rise of house prices in some cities in the short term, some demand for improved house purchase can not be ruled out to be further tightened.

 

The rapid recovery of the property market will lead to the early arrival of the new policy of regulation. Therefore, although the property market regulation and control policy will still have clear support for reasonable improvement demand in the long run, in order to cope with the rapid rise of house prices in some cities in the short term, some improvement housing demand can not be ruled out to be further tightened. How much.

 

Due to the rapid recovery of the real estate market in some first-and second-tier cities, the property market in these regions is approaching the "critical point" of the policy ". How much.

A person close to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development revealed that Beijing and other first-tier cities have basically determined to introduce new real estate policies in the near future. The form of regulation is to curb demand and further raise the threshold for buying houses. The main reason for the introduction of the New Deal is that the property market in first-tier and hot second-tier cities is heating up too fast. "So this round of New Deal may be more than a city in Beijing." The above person said.

　　

According to reports, at present, government departments have reached a basic consensus on the rapid recovery of the property market in some first-and second-tier cities, while some third-and fourth-tier cities are still facing the problem of de-integration due to excessive supply and need policy support. In other words, the regulation of the property market will not be one size fits all, and will be treated differently. How much.

Part of the first-line property market heating up too fast into a consensus

 

According to the above-mentioned person, the previous government departments' attitude towards regulation depends on the market situation. If housing prices rise too fast, they will take measures to regulate at any time. Since October last year, although the property market in various places has gradually recovered, from the reports of people close to government departments, the house prices in the eyes of regulators have not risen too fast. "Until recently, (relevant government departments) basically determined that a few first-tier cities did pick up too fast." The person close to the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission said. As for his expectation of the policy, the person has also changed from "may be introduced" to "will definitely be introduced", and the time point may not exceed before the National Two Sessions in March. How much.

 

In fact, this idea of regulation and control has emerged at the Boao Real Estate Year-end Forum in January this year. At that time, Zhu Zhongyi, secretary general of the China Real Estate Association, made it clear that under normal circumstances, the real estate policy environment for the whole year of 2013 was: the direction remained unchanged and the intensity remained unchanged. However, if there is an irrational rise in house prices in some cities before the "two sessions" this year, it is very likely to lead to more stringent macro-control. How much.

 

However, such a solemn reminder by authoritative experts has not changed the situation of the property market rising all the way. The latest data show that house prices in 100 cities rose 1% month-on-month in January, the first time in nearly two years that the increase exceeded 1%, and it has risen for the eighth consecutive month since it stopped falling in June 2012. In addition, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities across the country of 9812 yuan/square meter has also refreshed the average price record in the past 25 months. How much.

 

In particular, it is worth noting that the pattern of rising house prices in first-tier cities has been formed, becoming the leader and weather vane of the country's rising house prices. The average residential price in ten major cities including Beijing and Shanghai was 16417 yuan per square meter, up 1.61 percent from the previous month and 2.84 percent from the same period last year. Kan Kan

 

Take Shanghai as an example. In January, the transaction area of new commercial residential buildings in Shanghai was 1.0068 million square meters, down 13.7 percent from more than 120 million square meters in December last year, but up 418 percent from a year earlier. It can be seen that the anti-booming property market in Shanghai and other places in the off-season in January is already worthy of high attention from government departments. "The transaction area of commercial housing in Shanghai in January has rebounded to the level of the same period in 2011, and the most stringent macro-control in this round of history began on January 26, 2011." China Real Estate Information Group analyst Fu Qi introduction. At that time, Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting of the State Council and decided to take eight measures to further regulate the real estate market. The key one is that the down payment ratio for the purchase of second homes with loans should not be less than 60%, and the loan interest rate should not be less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate. At the same time, all localities report house price control indicators and announce them to the society. How much.

 

Corresponding to the unabated heat of commercial housing transactions is the serious shortage of supply. It is understood that in 2012, the total supply of new commercial housing in Shanghai was 8.9 million square meters, down 16.5 percent from the same period last year. While setting a five-year low, the total annual supply fell below the 10 million square meter mark for the first time. By January this year, the new supply area of commercial housing in Shanghai was only 311100 square meters, a decrease of nearly 70% from the previous month. How much.

 

"Due to the early release of available housing in December last year, and the off-season in January and February, Shanghai's current supply is particularly tight." Fu Qi said that due to the insufficient land supply in the first half of last year, the supply of first-hand commercial housing in Shanghai may be in short supply this year. How much.

 

In this case, the large-scale real estate companies with more resources in their hands, the trend of rising volume and price in January becomes very clear. According to Vanke's announcement, in January 2013, it achieved a total sales area of 1.611 million square meters and a sales amount of 19.07 billion billion yuan, up 35.38 percent and 56.31 percent respectively over the same period last year. The average sales price also rose from 10252 yuan/square meter in January 2012 to 11837 yuan/square meter, an increase of 15.46. How much.

 

Evergrande Real Estate, another super-large real estate company with nearly 100 billion legions, also made a lot of gains in January. It is understood that Evergrande's total contract sales in January was about 7.25 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 1.168 million square meters, an increase of 226 and 213 respectively over the same period last year. With nine new projects listed at the same time, Evergrande has sold as many as 188 real estate in the same period nationwide. How much.

 

In addition, Shimao Real Estate's contracted sales in January were about 4.1 billion yuan, an increase of 353 percent over the same period last year, and the contracted sales area was 330000 square meters, an increase of 568 percent over the same period last year. Judging from the sales of real estate companies that have announced the January Performance Express, the hot sales situation in January has become a consensus. An expert in Shanghai who has always insisted that the property market is stable and does not need to be tightened again also confessed to reporters, "From the perspective of transaction volume, Shanghai is indeed a bit hotter." How much.

Explain in detail the five means of tightening demand.

 

"If the regulation does not upgrade, first-tier cities will be out of control of housing prices." Yang Hongxu, vice president of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said. Wang Anshun, the mayor of Beijing, made it clear at the just-concluded two sessions in Beijing that he would never waver in insisting on real estate regulation. In the next few days, rumors of the Beijing property market have been swirling, and various versions of the Beijing property market policy have been rubbing their hands. How much.

 

Yang Hongxu said that at this stage, first-tier and a few second-tier cities where housing prices are rising too fast are facing policy pressure. However, because the local government's regulatory authority is too small, credit and taxation are all determined by the relevant central ministries and commissions. Therefore, the effect of the new policy in a single city may be limited. If you want to curb the accelerated rise in housing prices in first-tier cities, relevant ministries and commissions need to coordinate policies and measures. How

 

Regarding specific policies, some market participants revealed that it is relatively likely to suspend second home provident fund loans for first-tier cities. It is also said that some areas have greatly increased the down payment for second home loans, and for families and individuals with four or more sets. Studying targeted policies will also be one of the reserve policies for regulating areas where housing prices are rising too fast. Krishman.

 

In this regard, the reporter learned from the insiders of the Provident Fund Management Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that the competent authorities have not studied the suspension of provident funds in first-tier cities. The person made it clear that if house prices rise more than expected, the national property market regulation and reserve policy is very adequate. Kan Kan

 

In Yang Hongxu's view, if we want to further strengthen the regulation and control of the property market, the policy direction is no more than five levels: first, administrative intervention is tight, and purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and price restrictions are all strict. Second, housing loans are further tightened, three sets of loans continue to be suspended, and the preferential interest rate of the first set of loans is reduced or canceled (but it depends on various commercial banks, and it is impossible for the CBRC to issue policies to cancel the preferential treatment). The biggest adjustment area may be the second set of housing loans, which is likely to increase the down payment and interest rate. Third, the tax increase can increase the tax burden, including deed tax, business tax, individual tax adjustment, land value-added tax, etc., and the real estate tax may be expanded for the second time. Fourth, increase the supply of land, especially ordinary residential land, and suppress the emergence of high-priced land. Fifth, more emphasis is placed on regional differentiation, and some policies will enhance the pertinence of first-tier cities. How much.

 

In short, although the property market regulation policy will still have clear support for reasonable improvement demand in the long run, in order to cope with the rapid rise in housing prices in some cities in the short term, some improved housing demand cannot be ruled out to be further tightened. How

 

However, some people in the industry said that the situation of different cities, different enterprises, and different projects is now a double day, and the national housing prices are still in a special period of uneven rise and fall. For example, in December compared with November, the housing price index of 70 cities rose by an average of 0.34, but Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Fuzhou exceeded 1%, and Shanghai 0.7; while the housing prices of the majority of third-and fourth-tier cities are generally rising moderately, Hainan, Zhejiang, The absolute value of housing prices in some cities in a few provinces such as Guangxi and Guangxi is still falling. This is also one of the concerns that has not yet introduced a national regulatory policy.